CarthagoTurkish banking dataThe headline NPL ratio is the 3.1% tip. Loans the banks themselves classify as deteriorated are 12.3% — 4.0× as much.
75% of that problem book is Stage 2 — the watchlist that never reaches the ratio. It carries 9.9%cover against Stage 3's 62.3%.
Stage 2 is not impaired, so its lower cover is expected rather than a shortfall. What matters is that the pipeline behind the tip is still filling: formation ran 2.2× last year, net +₺404bn.
problem loans = stage2 + stage3, both from the audited TFRS-9 filings · the 4.0× is 12.3% ÷ 3.1%, same source — never divided by the published ratio
Formation is 2.2× last year (₺304bn → ₺673bn), net +₺404bn. Exits are 77% collections — not write-offs or sales. The ratio is not being managed down; the book is genuinely deteriorating.
+7.4% of ECL stock
+14.9% of ECL stock
+29.8% of ECL stock
Migration provisioned at Stage 3's rate (62%) against Stage 2 today (10%), on a ₺2427bn book · 2026Q1. Stage 2 is not impaired — this is what migration would cost, not a gap the banks owe.
The watchlist is ₺2.43trn against Stage 3's ₺0.82trn, and carries 9.9% cover versus 62.3%. Stage 2 is not impaired, so lower cover is expected — the migration sizing is what it would cost, not a shortfall owed.stage2 ÷ stage3 = 3.0× AND cov2 < cov3 ÷ 5
New NPLs of ₺673bn against ₺269bn of exits — net +₺404bn. And the exits are 77% collections, not write-offs or sales: the ratio is not being managed down, the book is genuinely deteriorating.formation(2025) ÷ formation(2024) = 2.2×
Like for like, both CPI-deflated: the bad-loan stock grew 34.9% in real terms against a loan book growing 3.3%.npl_stock_real (34.9%) > 3× loan_book_real (3.3%)
1.78% → 2.77%. The ratio is registering the deterioration — slowly. It is the level that misleads, not the direction.npl_ratio rising for 17 consecutive months
An NPL ratio is NPL ÷ loans. Deflate both legs by CPI and it is unchanged — a ratio is deflator-invariant. Only real book growth dilutes it, and that was 3.3%: worth about 0.1pp, not the ~1pp a nominally-frozen-book counterfactual would suggest. A real bias does exist — the numerator is stale (a loan that defaulted two years ago sits at its origination principal) while the denominator reprices — but sizing it needs origination-vintage data we do not have, so we put no number on it.
The published ratio (BDDK monthly, 2.77%) and the ratio implied by the weekly bulletin (2.99%) differ by a stable ~0.10pp — definitional, not noise. They are never mixed inside one calculation; the vitals quote the published figure and say so, while the stock and its segments come from the weekly feed.
The 2.77% NPL ratio is the tip: loans classified as deteriorated are 12.3%, 4.0× what the headline prints, and 9.2% of the book sits on a watchlist carrying 9.9% cover — with formation running 2.2× and exits that are collections, not write-offs.
| Metric | 52w ago | Now | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| SME⊂ commercial | 2.76% | 3.92% | +1.15pp |
| Retail cards | 4.33% | 5.48% | +1.15pp |
| Gen. purpose | 5.18% | 6.14% | +0.95pp |
| Auto | 0.48% | 1.19% | +0.71pp |
| Commercial | 1.67% | 2.32% | +0.65pp |
| Housing | 0.16% | 0.18% | +0.02pp |
How the watchlist has built up. The roll-forward and the migration sizing sit in the brief above.
Chart data: 13 rows, Period from 2023Q1 to 2026Q1. Stage 2 (watchlist): 8.03 at the start, 9.17 at the end, ranging 7.67 to 9.17. Stage 3 (NPL): 2 at the start, 3.11 at the end, ranging 1.62 to 3.11. The full data follows as a table.
| Period | Stage 2 (watchlist) | Stage 3 (NPL) |
|---|---|---|
| 2023Q1 | 8.03497039884867 | 2.0000908539967774 |
| 2023Q2 | 8.08360627943379 | 1.805669339409861 |
| 2023Q3 | 8.023188456412758 | 1.678459739947607 |
| 2023Q4 | 7.838470698221303 | 1.7393416884225052 |
| 2024Q1 | 7.66955391103722 | 1.6241475770897125 |
| 2024Q2 | 7.764466952494888 | 1.673076719130049 |
| 2024Q3 | 7.940381114920861 | 1.8766239968012035 |
| 2024Q4 | 8.31920095648254 | 1.9891431601600833 |
| 2025Q1 | 8.29829068780683 | 2.188807177849194 |
| 2025Q2 | 8.440882032120282 | 2.4192509297024696 |
| 2025Q3 | 8.484574339845366 | 2.6846345847492326 |
| 2025Q4 | 8.74851504678453 | 2.913673549041627 |
| 2026Q1 | 9.167092340967141 | 3.106949890474501 |
The stock is the fast-moving series; the ratio is a slow summary of it.
Chart data: 154 rows, Period from 2023-08-11 to 2026-07-17. Gross NPL: 172029 at the start, 800522 at the end, ranging 168261 to 800522. The full data is available from this chart's CSV download.
Chart data: 36 rows, Period from 2023-06 to 2026-06. Sector: 86.54 at the start, 76.07 at the end, ranging 73.2 to 86.55. State: 90.48 at the start, 73.45 at the end, ranging 67.39 to 90.71. Domestic: 85.04 at the start, 75.48 at the end, ranging 73.61 to 85.82. Foreign: 84.21 at the start, 80.02 at the end, ranging 77.13 to 84.21. Participation: 102.4 at the start, 80.18 at the end, ranging 75.59 to 102.4. Dev & Inv: 86.92 at the start, 69.13 at the end, ranging 60.66 to 88.08. The full data follows as a table.
| Period | Sector | State | Domestic | Foreign | Participation | Dev & Inv |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-06 | 86.542065 | 90.479101 | 85.043465 | 84.206046 | 102.430065 | 86.921042 |
| 2023-07 | 86.554339 | 90.709494 | 85.822627 | 83.110799 | 101.585383 | 87.151049 |
| 2023-08 | 85.830412 | 89.796203 | 84.995367 | 82.7183 | 101.489585 | 88.077125 |
| 2023-09 | 85.624246 | 89.35274 | 85.227001 | 82.217603 | 101.733862 | 85.209007 |
| 2023-10 | 84.913044 | 88.791837 | 83.85606 | 82.240373 | 101.525057 | 81.47214 |
| 2023-11 | 84.497688 | 87.950862 | 83.343095 | 82.352091 | 101.274301 | 79.744178 |
| 2023-12 | 82.004382 | 87.075107 | 80.344748 | 78.838818 | 99.769477 | 77.861078 |
| 2024-01 | 81.843443 | 86.799106 | 80.445135 | 78.578651 | 98.434532 | 77.312256 |
| 2024-02 | 81.646518 | 86.604218 | 79.892811 | 78.692208 | 97.917146 | 77.531191 |
| 2024-03 | 81.765521 | 85.858706 | 80.846393 | 78.61305 | 96.821531 | 78.02717 |
| 2024-04 | 80.985679 | 85.52973 | 79.130467 | 78.598747 | 96.849211 | 78.121881 |
| 2024-05 | 80.232622 | 84.216401 | 78.151615 | 78.635634 | 95.921124 | 77.872109 |
| 2024-06 | 79.028666 | 83.052665 | 75.828335 | 78.589911 | 95.818204 | 81.640916 |
| 2024-07 | 76.565361 | 77.552176 | 74.629659 | 77.866722 | 93.946817 | 82.05109 |
| 2024-08 | 76.129585 | 76.578869 | 74.851608 | 77.172915 | 92.323889 | 81.800186 |
| 2024-09 | 75.38874 | 74.948899 | 74.389878 | 77.130203 | 91.337446 | 81.676365 |
| 2024-10 | 75.66008 | 74.382961 | 74.836974 | 78.248472 | 91.101607 | 81.697689 |
| 2024-11 | 75.636247 | 73.871978 | 75.08305 | 78.436893 | 89.860642 | 81.826715 |
| 2024-12 | 76.631357 | 72.647696 | 78.134799 | 79.338012 | 86.327901 | 83.618619 |
| 2025-01 | 76.281551 | 71.643673 | 77.652566 | 79.79847 | 85.186369 | 84.353528 |
| 2025-03 | 75.486987 | 69.510107 | 76.956704 | 80.424127 | 84.139223 | 83.291952 |
| 2025-04 | 75.12396 | 68.632221 | 77.159346 | 79.887005 | 83.185455 | 83.968751 |
| 2025-05 | 75.123084 | 68.23114 | 77.624446 | 79.988544 | 81.031555 | 80.006569 |
| 2025-06 | 73.200145 | 67.389438 | 73.608001 | 79.570723 | 76.719147 | 77.40135 |
| 2025-07 | 73.493373 | 67.817039 | 74.548508 | 79.044563 | 78.268511 | 76.982255 |
| 2025-08 | 74.57206 | 70.756233 | 74.566879 | 79.095481 | 78.860561 | 76.820177 |
| 2025-09 | 74.664078 | 69.926483 | 74.764021 | 80.326939 | 79.010872 | 75.088526 |
| 2025-10 | 74.830263 | 70.465008 | 74.555671 | 80.432856 | 79.314719 | 63.169076 |
| 2025-11 | 75.466164 | 71.221266 | 75.119188 | 80.935192 | 81.021194 | 60.664062 |
| 2025-12 | 74.749641 | 70.699455 | 74.822215 | 79.664133 | 75.590801 | 71.644692 |
| 2026-01 | 75.078204 | 71.244208 | 75.363712 | 79.374205 | 76.476931 | 72.734192 |
| 2026-02 | 75.689985 | 71.621318 | 76.077251 | 80.154535 | 77.675382 | 71.775328 |
| 2026-03 | 75.753847 | 72.644859 | 75.204932 | 80.139588 | 79.754328 | 68.402005 |
| 2026-04 | 76.337956 | 73.110445 | 75.657882 | 81.069412 | 81.17015 | 69.449169 |
| 2026-05 | 77.065984 | 74.867166 | 75.948627 | 81.017666 | 82.705531 | 69.344594 |
| 2026-06 | 76.065105 | 73.446387 | 75.475327 | 80.019223 | 80.176791 | 69.134259 |
The composition behind the attribution bars — household credit and the commercial book.
Chart data: 37 rows, Period from 2023-06 to 2026-06. Housing: 534 at the start, 1394 at the end, ranging 477 to 1394. Auto: 130 at the start, 474 at the end, ranging 130 to 474. Gen. Purpose: 24470 at the start, 147784 at the end, ranging 24470 to 147784. Retail Cards: 9332 at the start, 168910 at the end, ranging 9332 to 168910. The full data follows as a table.
| Period | Housing | Auto | Gen. Purpose | Retail Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-06 | 534 | 130 | 24470 | 9332 |
| 2023-07 | 532 | 135 | 25740 | 10262 |
| 2023-08 | 518 | 135 | 26960 | 11282 |
| 2023-09 | 510 | 130 | 26934 | 11715 |
| 2023-10 | 502 | 132 | 28223 | 13098 |
| 2023-11 | 505 | 136 | 28407 | 14171 |
| 2023-12 | 495 | 141 | 29142 | 15475 |
| 2024-01 | 491 | 147 | 31204 | 17679 |
| 2024-02 | 477 | 151 | 32684 | 19713 |
| 2024-03 | 480 | 146 | 32186 | 21491 |
| 2024-04 | 508 | 162 | 34479 | 24749 |
| 2024-05 | 512 | 166 | 36326 | 27641 |
| 2024-06 | 541 | 176 | 36820 | 31223 |
| 2024-07 | 593 | 189 | 41709 | 37121 |
| 2024-08 | 619 | 207 | 43303 | 41090 |
| 2024-09 | 647 | 223 | 45500 | 44684 |
| 2024-10 | 668 | 236 | 48325 | 46168 |
| 2024-11 | 711 | 217 | 51017 | 50017 |
| 2024-12 | 696 | 221 | 58386 | 55658 |
| 2025-01 | 725 | 236 | 64644 | 63768 |
| 2025-02 | 766 | 241 | 70571 | 70853 |
| 2025-03 | 792 | 244 | 72220 | 74267 |
| 2025-04 | 815 | 255 | 78649 | 81649 |
| 2025-05 | 848 | 261 | 83735 | 87373 |
| 2025-06 | 885 | 268 | 88024 | 93302 |
| 2025-07 | 917 | 278 | 93027 | 98028 |
| 2025-08 | 993 | 293 | 95969 | 102304 |
| 2025-09 | 1019 | 297 | 98833 | 107065 |
| 2025-10 | 1061 | 304 | 104756 | 113382 |
| 2025-11 | 1064 | 313 | 109049 | 118084 |
| 2025-12 | 1128 | 334 | 115405 | 124652 |
| 2026-01 | 1168 | 353 | 123917 | 135330 |
| 2026-02 | 1180 | 372 | 128226 | 140355 |
| 2026-03 | 1255 | 401 | 129976 | 144635 |
| 2026-04 | 1254 | 419 | 134449 | 150720 |
| 2026-05 | 1352 | 451 | 137626 | 156795 |
| 2026-06 | 1394 | 474 | 147784 | 168910 |
Chart data: 37 rows, Period from 2023-06 to 2026-06. Housing: 0.12 at the start, 0.17 at the end, ranging 0.11 to 0.17. Auto: 0.16 at the start, 1.1 at the end, ranging 0.15 to 1.1. Gen. Purpose: 2.83 at the start, 5.78 at the end, ranging 2.83 to 5.78. Retail Cards: 1.18 at the start, 5.12 at the end, ranging 1.18 to 5.12. The full data follows as a table.
| Period | Housing | Auto | Gen. Purpose | Retail Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-06 | 0.12178823443550925 | 0.15713577739904025 | 2.8302465101915475 | 1.175649492172835 |
| 2023-07 | 0.1204219294671556 | 0.15719425716980473 | 2.8994812699592787 | 1.1974468780265815 |
| 2023-08 | 0.11580206342286756 | 0.1542134542671434 | 2.9698465836299324 | 1.2206838945896936 |
| 2023-09 | 0.11437336849753761 | 0.14771887960911312 | 2.940084881933771 | 1.2005398586406588 |
| 2023-10 | 0.11330984373624538 | 0.14790578849472244 | 3.031497585371303 | 1.294760067061019 |
| 2023-11 | 0.114665358800396 | 0.14905743095133714 | 2.9904277258032423 | 1.3115527892824914 |
| 2023-12 | 0.11295644673247805 | 0.14696225884118697 | 2.9637419097636086 | 1.305670279232038 |
| 2024-01 | 0.1124372549738028 | 0.15577149275715543 | 3.101296016538125 | 1.414223832779371 |
| 2024-02 | 0.10885365914884197 | 0.1610975974053685 | 3.1144110595705916 | 1.4989164734060754 |
| 2024-03 | 0.10802951906608481 | 0.15709566695718605 | 2.951197863943782 | 1.5224923790369143 |
| 2024-04 | 0.11431992024610288 | 0.17785389631776563 | 3.096077260502768 | 1.7418839006825646 |
| 2024-05 | 0.1145682990411618 | 0.18042889905763942 | 3.165220391735887 | 1.900350699646138 |
| 2024-06 | 0.1210474971584044 | 0.19407198306280876 | 3.08375725922489 | 2.0833333333333335 |
| 2024-07 | 0.13160873367097373 | 0.21891722843839043 | 3.409361213764962 | 2.401907497994151 |
| 2024-08 | 0.13553903589923252 | 0.25194435316025854 | 3.429484234969129 | 2.5466645759515285 |
| 2024-09 | 0.1390461904137645 | 0.28330051451438737 | 3.512008367070483 | 2.7077290016779387 |
| 2024-10 | 0.13902995387868597 | 0.31083305893974317 | 3.6247102857014273 | 2.7407262734659255 |
| 2024-11 | 0.14331152418155213 | 0.288490939789149 | 3.7134141326207897 | 2.82934390016942 |
| 2024-12 | 0.13586876950917406 | 0.293757975329647 | 4.069856600743345 | 3.0002355641491847 |
| 2025-01 | 0.13850283214411935 | 0.33137224617026356 | 4.404100247034025 | 3.3413975832401936 |
| 2025-02 | 0.1431698094869624 | 0.35217956773976705 | 4.662602061109151 | 3.6789896784953595 |
| 2025-03 | 0.14442408162148856 | 0.3692829252050731 | 4.63587636807138 | 3.724021182699024 |
| 2025-04 | 0.14507122730258298 | 0.39613496551295596 | 4.841994446872826 | 3.942874223910674 |
| 2025-05 | 0.14736216511165987 | 0.42394906113962705 | 4.986989813998115 | 3.9588066263897486 |
| 2025-06 | 0.15173206004131912 | 0.4511404763908762 | 5.035069996991222 | 4.134526544819655 |
| 2025-07 | 0.15421950969295686 | 0.49088854357960165 | 5.1798616431765945 | 4.103538709805703 |
| 2025-08 | 0.16313615708385495 | 0.5493475326233689 | 5.180037459450415 | 4.105738498361782 |
| 2025-09 | 0.1633628049024873 | 0.589906051999126 | 5.106344943461463 | 4.202165509548628 |
| 2025-10 | 0.1652277370807794 | 0.6130268199233716 | 5.234858009798494 | 4.375120826913348 |
| 2025-11 | 0.16151312294123898 | 0.6341423882653268 | 5.241687007130298 | 4.366919780167356 |
| 2025-12 | 0.16613399708381812 | 0.6417646606717393 | 5.224437356096527 | 4.444902457975575 |
| 2026-01 | 0.16894652871295435 | 0.7197324960241406 | 5.5121528743112425 | 4.679997842075923 |
| 2026-02 | 0.16485074720696732 | 0.7878351476131984 | 5.636671908030981 | 4.780117327520881 |
| 2026-03 | 0.1691438490940359 | 0.860404239797451 | 5.4628015392814335 | 4.76966069075411 |
| 2026-04 | 0.1634272279666473 | 0.9253124861976061 | 5.584160718698667 | 4.846241478000758 |
| 2026-05 | 0.17268730569484927 | 1.0216332540491562 | 5.638625811833305 | 4.81617771279553 |
| 2026-06 | 0.17393734761765725 | 1.1007384701128606 | 5.77932552896526 | 5.119424961068608 |
Chart data: 157 rows, Period from 2023-07-21 to 2026-07-17. SME: 1.87 at the start, 3.92 at the end, ranging 1.56 to 3.92. Commercial (all): 1.67 at the start, 2.32 at the end, ranging 1.39 to 2.32. Non-SME (derived): 1.56 at the start, 1.42 at the end, ranging 1.1 to 1.61. The full data is available from this chart's CSV download.
NPL by ownership group.
Chart data: 36 rows, Period from 2023-06 to 2026-06. Sector: 1.64 at the start, 2.77 at the end, ranging 1.49 to 2.77. State: 1.07 at the start, 2.24 at the end, ranging 0.99 to 2.24. Domestic: 2.32 at the start, 3.18 at the end, ranging 1.89 to 3.18. Foreign: 2.04 at the start, 3.27 at the end, ranging 1.83 to 3.27. Participation: 1.14 at the start, 2.53 at the end, ranging 0.96 to 2.54. Dev & Inv: 0.62 at the start, 0.61 at the end, ranging 0.35 to 0.74. The full data follows as a table.
| Period | Sector | State | Domestic | Foreign | Participation | Dev & Inv |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-06 | 1.638625 | 1.074834 | 2.319452 | 2.035954 | 1.139574 | 0.616937 |
| 2023-07 | 1.602463 | 1.043178 | 2.247702 | 2.033656 | 1.068932 | 0.593748 |
| 2023-08 | 1.612534 | 1.055579 | 2.228309 | 2.068917 | 1.098519 | 0.59516 |
| 2023-09 | 1.531022 | 1.004805 | 2.116927 | 1.953636 | 1.08345 | 0.562854 |
| 2023-10 | 1.536334 | 0.990151 | 2.157798 | 1.950962 | 1.051716 | 0.5964 |
| 2023-11 | 1.513319 | 0.991632 | 2.078262 | 1.920584 | 1.025194 | 0.608731 |
| 2023-12 | 1.600899 | 1.059145 | 2.162138 | 2.02358 | 0.955666 | 0.730642 |
| 2024-01 | 1.599451 | 1.054092 | 2.141621 | 2.035885 | 0.977938 | 0.743675 |
| 2024-02 | 1.545394 | 1.038519 | 2.085868 | 1.890569 | 0.994366 | 0.725451 |
| 2024-03 | 1.49249 | 1.027457 | 1.953478 | 1.834051 | 0.966164 | 0.677447 |
| 2024-04 | 1.515771 | 1.023304 | 1.99516 | 1.893897 | 1.010549 | 0.668427 |
| 2024-05 | 1.523265 | 1.053891 | 1.928979 | 1.916078 | 1.007176 | 0.641347 |
| 2024-06 | 1.52585 | 1.085851 | 1.891354 | 1.899824 | 1.010917 | 0.619981 |
| 2024-07 | 1.68089 | 1.24048 | 2.106018 | 1.987509 | 1.062425 | 0.613001 |
| 2024-08 | 1.687105 | 1.257438 | 2.081806 | 2.011012 | 1.08349 | 0.562817 |
| 2024-09 | 1.710952 | 1.298576 | 2.088357 | 2.020031 | 1.093274 | 0.556655 |
| 2024-10 | 1.768549 | 1.354081 | 2.187518 | 2.036387 | 1.174425 | 0.569153 |
| 2024-11 | 1.802493 | 1.375569 | 2.228611 | 2.08188 | 1.220889 | 0.55437 |
| 2024-12 | 1.78079 | 1.325926 | 2.168917 | 2.159666 | 1.238062 | 0.540226 |
| 2025-01 | 1.871218 | 1.377678 | 2.308042 | 2.263897 | 1.30781 | 0.509675 |
| 2025-03 | 1.934412 | 1.419557 | 2.430987 | 2.30729 | 1.28488 | 0.474601 |
| 2025-04 | 2.029062 | 1.487929 | 2.497429 | 2.482304 | 1.431997 | 0.445441 |
| 2025-05 | 2.086631 | 1.561246 | 2.519133 | 2.5508 | 1.545125 | 0.466346 |
| 2025-06 | 2.115199 | 1.649029 | 2.46542 | 2.566574 | 1.54354 | 0.356669 |
| 2025-07 | 2.181708 | 1.698363 | 2.570133 | 2.624231 | 1.622192 | 0.358495 |
| 2025-08 | 2.21576 | 1.734523 | 2.579553 | 2.681339 | 1.714581 | 0.35084 |
| 2025-09 | 2.286396 | 1.84151 | 2.567136 | 2.781761 | 1.860366 | 0.36094 |
| 2025-10 | 2.385708 | 1.890252 | 2.756056 | 2.872107 | 1.978633 | 0.501915 |
| 2025-11 | 2.425153 | 1.919586 | 2.786242 | 2.930036 | 2.002456 | 0.552796 |
| 2025-12 | 2.47437 | 1.972877 | 2.861039 | 2.948527 | 1.976669 | 0.568138 |
| 2026-01 | 2.565484 | 2.019129 | 2.98653 | 3.079595 | 2.155469 | 0.558002 |
| 2026-02 | 2.594253 | 2.038662 | 3.02751 | 3.115749 | 2.221891 | 0.563488 |
| 2026-03 | 2.622853 | 2.075917 | 3.039848 | 3.146214 | 2.303846 | 0.629386 |
| 2026-04 | 2.649333 | 2.095013 | 3.108039 | 3.142815 | 2.379757 | 0.619939 |
| 2026-05 | 2.689679 | 2.117159 | 3.173698 | 3.179197 | 2.538686 | 0.604839 |
| 2026-06 | 2.772401 | 2.242758 | 3.180232 | 3.269274 | 2.530608 | 0.605409 |
Chart data: 5 rows, Group from Foreign to Dev & Inv. Value: 3.27 at the start, 0.61 at the end, ranging 0.61 to 3.27. The full data follows as a table.
| Group | Value |
|---|---|
| Foreign | 3.269274 |
| Domestic | 3.180232 |
| Participation | 2.530608 |
| State | 2.242758 |
| Dev & Inv | 0.605409 |
| SME | 3.92% | +1.15% |
| Commercial (all) | 2.32% | +0.65% |
| Non-SME (derived) | 1.42% | +0.27% |